Recovery in the Pasture, Reality in the Market

12:55 p.m. Feb. 13, 2026

WILL THOMAS
UT Extension Agent

“The Muddy Mess” was the kinder choice of words that my mama used to describe our winter hay feeding site, and by this time of year, that description usually fits a little too well. Most cattle producers know exactly what that sacrifice area looks like in late winter: bare ground, hoof pugged soil, and nutrient-loaded mud. The good news is those worn-out spots don’t have to stay that way. One of the best ways to reclaim them is by overseeding with a well-adapted summer annual once soil temperatures warm and traffic pressure is off.

Several species can work, but in our area, crabgrass has proven especially reliable. It tolerates compacted ground better than most forages, establishes quickly, and can take advantage of the heavy fertility left behind from manure and urine. With adequate rainfall, you can often expect 2 tons of dry matter per acre or more from a good stand, and in many cases, it will reseed itself if allowed to mature late in the season. That natural reseeding trait makes it a practical, low-input option for feeding sites that are used repeatedly each year.

Before seeding, it helps to drag or lightly disk the area to break crusting and improve seed-to-soil contact. Plant once soil temps are consistently above about 60°F, typically late April through May in this region. A seeding rate around 3–5 pounds per acre drilled a quarter to half inch deep (or 6–8 pounds broadcast) usually gives a solid stand. Because these sites are already nutrient-rich, additional fertilizer is rarely needed the first year, but a soil test is still the best way to know for sure.

Keep in mind that high fertility doesn’t just favor your forage; it also encourages opportunistic weeds. Staying on top of timely herbicide applications is essential to keep desirable forage competitive. In areas with a high nutrient load, such as this one, I recommend a product with a slightly longer residual effect to help keep your grass dominant. With a little management, those muddy feeding areas can shift from an eyesore to productive summer grazing or hay, turning a winter problem into a seasonal asset.

Something Feels Different

“The Shrinking Herd” might be the polite way to describe what’s happening across cattle country right now. If you’ve been watching sale barns, calf prices, or even the meat case at the grocery store, you’ve probably noticed something feels different, and that’s because it is. According to the latest USDA data, the U.S. cattle herd sits at about 86.2 million head as of Jan. 1, 2026, the lowest level since 1951. For perspective, the national herd once topped 130 million head in the 1970s. This leads us to the question, “Why is the herd so small?” Like most things in agriculture, this didn’t happen overnight. Several forces stacked together over multiple years, such as drought pressure. When grass disappears, cows follow. Extended droughts, especially across major beef regions, raised feed costs and pushed producers to sell cows they otherwise would have kept. Another key factor is higher input costs.

Feed, land, fuel, and interest rates all climbed sharply in recent years. When margins tighten, producers often sell breeding stock rather than expand. The cattle cycle itself is playing a role in this market. The U.S. herd naturally expands and contracts in roughly 10-year cycles tied to profitability. We’re currently in year seven of contraction. Another factor is fewer replacement females being kept back for breeding stock. From 2021 to 2023, many producers placed heifers on feed instead of saving them as replacements because pasture and finances were tight. That decision shows up years later as fewer calves. Structural industry pressures. An aging rancher population, land conversion, and fewer young producers entering the business all contribute to slower rebuilding.

The even bigger question is, “What does it mean going forward?” Low inventory doesn’t just affect today’s market; it shapes the next several years. Prices remain strong; tight supplies and robust demand have already pushed farm-level cattle prices nearly 24% higher year over year and are expected to keep beef prices elevated. Consumers feel it at grocery stores, and some retailers report beef prices up 30-40% over the past year due to shrinking supply. Expansion will be slow, even if conditions improve; rebuilding takes time. A cow today doesn’t produce a market animal tomorrow; it’s a multi-year process. Imports may increase when domestic supply is tight; the U.S. tends to import more beef while exports dip.

Low Demand, High Prices

The cattle cycle will eventually turn. Right now, we’re in a tight phase where demand is low, prices are high, and expansion is cautious. For cow-calf producers who held onto cows through drought and high costs, this phase can offer strong market opportunities. For those looking to expand, it’s a reminder that timing, rainfall, and input costs matter just as much as market price. In other words, the smallest herd in 75 years isn’t just a statistic; it’s the result of weather, economics, biology, and time all pulling in the same direction.

The UT Extension Office is here to support you. Don’t hesitate to call (931) 759-7163, email wthoma32@utk.edu, or stop by the County Building at 241 Main St. in Lynchburg.

Will Thomas is an Extension Agent with the Moore County Extension Office. The U.T. Extension Office of Moore County offers programs to all eligible persons regardless of race, color, age, national origin, veteran status, or disability.