Moore County cattle farmers face another squeeze

Cheaper imported beef can help consumers while U.S. herd rebuilds. Cattle farmers are not convinced both can happen.

2:32 p.m. Aug. 21, 2026 • Updated: 6:30 p.m. Aug. 21, 2026

DUANE CROSS
MCO Publisher•Editor

President Donald Trump announced Friday that the United States will temporarily allow up to 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef into the country without the normal out-of-quota tariff, aiming to lower hamburger prices while the nation's cattle herd remains near historic lows.

The 90-day move could mean cheaper beef at the grocery store. For American cattle farmers – including those here in Moore County – the benefit is harder to find.

Trump said the imported product would be sold at 25% below current market prices and argued the move would lower costs for families while giving the U.S. cattle herd time to grow.

Those two goals do not necessarily move together.

Cattle are big business here

In Moore County, this is not some faraway farm issue.

USDA counted 20,482 cattle and calves in Moore County in the 2022 Census of Agriculture, the latest full county-level agricultural census. Cattle and calf sales totaled $12.275 million, ranking Moore County 17th among Tennessee counties in that category.

The county had 63,825 acres of farmland spread across 281 farms. Nearly 19,500 acres were pasture, with another 9,273 acres devoted to hay and forage.

Livestock accounted for 89% of Moore County's agricultural sales.

But the cattle business here has changed since those USDA numbers were collected.

Jack Daniel Distillery ended its decades-old Cow Feeder Program on March 31, cutting off the distillery stillage – known around here simply as "slop" – that generations of local farmers had used to feed cattle.

The change forced participating farmers to replace a low-cost feed source they had relied on for years. Some participating farmers said they would cut their herds or leave the cattle business as the program wound down.

That means Moore County's cattle count today may be lower than the 20,482 head USDA counted in 2022. There is not yet a newer Census of Agriculture to show exactly how much the local herd has changed.

Now comes another uncertainty: more foreign beef entering the U.S. market.

More beef enters a tight market

Across the country, cattle numbers are already tight.

USDA reported 28.5 million beef cows as of July 1, down 1% from a year earlier. The agency estimated the 2026 calf crop at 32.5 million head, down 2% from 2025.

That smaller herd has helped push cattle prices higher. It has also pushed up prices at the meat counter. Ground beef averaged about $6.83 per pound nationally in June, according to federal data, compared with $6.12 a year earlier.

Trump's plan attacks the retail side of that equation by adding more beef to the market.

The 300,000 metric tons allowed under the temporary program would equal roughly 2% of annual U.S. beef consumption, according to industry estimates.

"For the next 90 days, the United States will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out-of-quota tariff," Trump said.

The administration has not yet detailed where all of the additional beef will come from or how the promised 25% discount will work through processors, wholesalers and retailers.

Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association Executive Vice President Dale Parker warned that the timing of increased beef imports could hurt producers as they enter the fall calf marketing season. He said strong cattle prices are helping farmers remain profitable and encouraging them to retain heifers to rebuild the nation’s depleted herd.

“Increasing imports of government-subsidized, below-market beef risks weakening producer confidence at the very time we need cattlemen investing in herd expansion,” Parker said.

He added that TCA supports affordable beef for consumers but cautioned against short-term measures that could come at the expense of domestic producers.

A local farmer isn't convinced

For the shopper standing at the meat counter, the goal is simple: make hamburger cheaper.

For the cattle farmer, higher cattle prices are part of what makes rebuilding the herd worth the risk.

One Moore County cattle farmer, who asked not to be named, questioned whether Trump's plan would accomplish much for either side.

"This will not make a difference," the farmer said. "Why he [Trump] thinks it will, I don't know.

"This won't help the cattle farmer. It may drop the price at the grocery store a little – maybe not enough to make a real difference. It sounds like politics."

The economics behind that concern begin at the farm. When cattle are scarce, their value rises. That gives producers more reason to keep young females, breed them and add cows back to the herd rather than sell those animals.

Rebuilding comes with a cost. A farmer who keeps a heifer gives up the money he could collect by selling her today, then pays to feed and maintain her while waiting for a calf.

That is a decision measured in years, not months. Adding cheaper foreign beef does not automatically mean cattle prices will fall. But increased supply can reduce some of the upward price pressure from a smaller domestic herd.

That is why cattle groups have questioned the administration's plan.

Put simply, Washington is trying to make hamburger cheaper without making cattle cheaper.

Ninety days cannot rebuild a herd

The temporary nature of the policy matters. A 90-day increase in imports carries less long-term risk for cattle producers than a permanent expansion of foreign beef entering the country.

But 90 days does little to solve the biological problem behind today's cattle shortage.

A heifer kept for breeding must mature, be bred and carry a calf for roughly nine months. That calf then has to grow before eventually entering the beef supply.

A decision made on a Moore County farm this summer may not add beef to a grocery case for years.

Strong cattle prices help persuade producers to make that investment.

There is another side

There is an economic argument for cheaper imports.

Consumers do not have to keep buying beef. If hamburger gets too expensive, families can buy chicken, pork or another protein instead. A sharp drop in beef demand would eventually hurt cattle producers, too.

Temporarily increasing imports could ease prices enough to keep consumers buying beef while domestic producers begin rebuilding their herds.

Whether the 90-day program can accomplish that without putting meaningful pressure on cattle prices remains to be seen.

The clearest potential winner is the consumer, particularly if the promised discount reaches grocery-store shelves.

For cattle farmers, the calculation is tougher. And in Moore County, that calculation comes after a year of change.

USDA's last full count found more than 20,000 cattle and calves grazing these hills and hollers. Since then, a feed program woven into local farming for generations has disappeared, some producers have cut cattle, and those who remain have had to rethink what it costs to keep them.

The country needs more cattle. Strong prices give farmers a reason to raise them.

The administration is betting it can lower beef prices today without weakening that rationale tomorrow.

Updated with statement from Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association Executive Vice President Dale Parker.